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Oil is at $38.20 a barrel...
2004-03-17
Oil is at $38.20 a barrel and the CRB (Commodity Index) is clearly staking a 20 year high - again ! Nobody is talking about these issues, but they will. This is bull market behavior and although the pullbacks will seem fast and vicious - remember the internet stock swings in the heyday - there is long-term money to be made off these trends.
Global stock markets are under clear distribution except for Japan which is breaking out (EWJ) and Malaysia (EWM). These remain buys and adds on any pullbacks. One bastion of strength in the US market continues to be the funeral industry - no kidding. The death trade may best be played through SRV, the largest funeral home operater which has been mired in its own set of industry and financial problems for the last 5 years. A close below $6 would negate the trade.
The dollar is showing strength, interest rates continue to plummet (last chance to refinance?- get ready for the phone calls), and metals are choppy but near their highs. If gold holds the $385 area and takes off to the upside again, we could easily see $475 by the end of the year. Silver has shown no weakness at all and has closed above $7 per ounce for the last few weeks. This continues to be my favorite metal for upside and is less correlated to swings in the US Dollar.
I continue to believe that adding Managed Futures Exposure is the best way to capitalize on these market conditions.
Fall River ($250 million), Aspect Capital ($2 billion), Vega ($10 billion) and Blackstar (Fund of Funds - led by Tom Basso) all fit the profile to outperform in these markets. These funds accept money on the first of every month and offer monthly liquidity. We are happy to provide you with more information on any of the funds.
Sincerely,
Howard Lindzon
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